Babes, We Are Entering A Trade War

The recession indicators are indicating

Apr 05, 2025

Happy Friday ⋆.˚ ᡣ𐭩 .𖥔˚

Hey everyone, it's Nikki Blon- I mean Laila here! If you are receiving this email, that means you are reading the Sixth Cute, Kind Of Weekly Newsletter! I am back from my week-long break (which was actually two weeks but who is counting). I am tired, burnt out, and need a month-long break at this point but alas, I am just being dramatic. Actually, I think I just need a chai.

I hope you enjoy - Laila

☆ NEWSLETTER #5: SPRING BREAKERS/EID MUBARAK (Free) — Obviously, I haven’t written anything in the past two weeks other than this newsletter, but I decided to link my previous weekly newsletter in this post.

We are entering a trade war.

If you do not know, about three days ago, President Trump announced new global tariffs at a White House press conference. The new tariffs for each country was listed on a board that apparently was very difficult to read because the text was so small.

From the NYT Newsletter I read this morning:

“In Trump’s telling, the tariffs are necessary to counter trade barriers that other countries have placed on America. To some extent, he has a point: Other nations do have higher tariffs than the United States does. But Trump exaggerates how big the gap is, as Ana explained. And these tariffs will not simply hurt other countries; they will also hurt the U.S. economy. Experts say the levies will result in higher prices and lower economic growth — and potentially even a recession.”

While Ana does make a point regarding U.S. tariffs compared to the world, it is important to note that these new introduced tariffs are much higher and will mainly effect consumers who will bear the brunt of tariff costs. Reciprocal tariffs are paid by American businesses that import goods from the countries.

The only time businesses will probably face impact is when consumers decide not to buy because products and services because they are too expensive and decide to save their money instead.

This is a beauty newsletter, and I was a mere child when the 2008 recession hit, so I do not know how a recession will effect the beauty industry. I have been monitoring other business-oriented beauty publications and seems like things are normal (?)

However, BOF reported that the fashion supply chain will be affected, but my poor-self can’t read the article.

Also, Glossy reported that EU special interest trade group Value of Beauty is showing concerns for the suspected, but now real, tariffs. This was in late March. I am assuming that globally-produced beauty products, which is pretty much everything, will be affected.

So, let’s do some math.

The new Japanese tariff is at +24%*
A full size Tatcha Dewy Skin Cream, which produced in Japan, costs $72
$72 x 0.24 = $17.28.
$72 + $17.28 = $89.28
So the price of the will most likely go up to $89!!
I am doing really straight-forward math with the information I have, so whether or not this price is true, idk!

*In theory, Tatcha would pay the tariff but we all now know the extra costs will trickle down to the consumer

This editing Laila a few days later after the tariffs went into effect and we finally see the aftermath. I was reading the AP this morning and it reported that banks, retailers, clothing, airlines, and technology companies were among the hardest hit and $2 trillion in US stocks (value) was wiped out.

I know the stickers are a bit distracting but I was having too much fun!

In light of the looming recession, I decided we should highlight one of the most prominent recession indicators: business causal at the club!!

However, we are highlighting a micro-trend that sits in the same realm as the tradwife (this is a completely different conversation for another day): the office siren.

Upon further investigation, I have also learned about the phrase “corpcore”.

I learned about the “recession indicators” phenomenon when reading up on whether or not fashion trends are indicative of economic status. I found this article from Vogue Business by José Criales-Unzueta asking the question of Why is everything in fashion suddenly a “recession indicator”?

The articles I have read list a few things people consider “recession indicators”:

Business casual
Peplum tops
Skinny scarves
Colorless minimalism (ties in with business casual)
Indie Sleaze
Skinny jeans

The article also mentions the reason why business casual became a recession indicator post 2008 recession, which is people were preferred to spend their money on a more versatile wardrobe.

“That this was the ‘going out look’ trend then had much to do with the fact that, during and immediately after the recession, people were less willing to invest in clothes for different occasions and rather spent on a more versatile wardrobe.”

Also the article mentioned that Pretty Little Thing rebranded from party girl wear to a business casual brand (?)

My Prediction

I was really hoping with the mainstream popularity of Chapel Roan, we would have a drag makeup renaissance, similar to that of the mid-2010s.

I think it can still happen, especially since makeup can be more financially accessible and versatile than clothing.

We are potentially going from $1000 Shein hauls back to drugstore makeup looks. Absolutely not a bad thing, but it really puts things into perspective considering the recent rise of Sephora kids and mass consumption on social media.

All-in-all, recessions are serious. My family was heavily affected by the 2008 recession just out of sheer misfortune of my dad’s job contract ending. I know a lot of people think something like this won’t hurt them but it only takes a series of small missteps to become a recession victim. Mercifully, my family was ok but I don’t think the American people (and the world) want another self-induced recession.

I have not been up to anything crazy recently.

I ended up wearing the pink outfit for Eid and I took a few selfies but I was so tired and exhausted to even take a nice photo. By the time I got to it, my eyeliner started running a little and I gave up. When I wear the outfit again, i’ll post it.

I have been watching an anime called Fairy Tail, which I used to watch until the seven-year time skip and read until the Grand Magic Games. Ugh, I love this anime. The storyline is great. The female cast is so cool. I love all of Lucy’s outfits. I LOVE Happy and Frosch.

I am currently at the end of the Grand Magic Games arc and right before the Eclipse Project arc. Another way to put it is that I am on the season following Natsu and Gajeel v. Sting and Rouge.

Makes me want to drop everything and join a guild. Maybe a makeup guild?